ABSTRACT
Background and objectives: We aim to verify the use of ML algorithms to predict patient outcome using a relatively small dataset and to create a nomogram to assess in-hospital mortality of patients with COVID-19. Methods: A database of 200 COVID-19 patients admitted to the Clinical Hospital of State University of Campinas (UNICAMP) was used in this analysis. Patient features were divided into three categories: clinical, chest abnormalities, and body composition characteristics acquired by computerized tomography. These features were evaluated independently and combined to predict patient outcomes. To minimize performance fluctuations due to low sample number, reduce possible bias related to outliers, and evaluate the uncertainties generated by the small dataset, we developed a shuffling technique, a modified version of the Monte Carlo Cross Validation, creating several subgroups for training the algorithm and complementary testing subgroups. The following ML algorithms were tested: random forest, boosted decision trees, logistic regression, support vector machines, and neural networks. Performance was evaluated by analyzing Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The importance of each feature in the determination of the outcome predictability was also studied and a nomogram was created based on the most important features selected by the exclusion test. Results: Among the different sets of features, clinical variables age, lymphocyte number and weight were the most valuable features for prognosis prediction. However, we observed that skeletal muscle radiodensity and presence of pleural effusion were also important for outcome determination. Integrating these independent predictors was successfully developed to accurately predict mortality in COVID-19 in hospital patients. A nomogram based on these five features was created to predict COVID-19 mortality in hospitalized patients. The area under the ROC curve was 0.86 ± 0.04. Conclusion: ML algorithms can be reliable for the prediction of COVID-19-related in-hospital mortality, even when using a relatively small dataset. The success of ML techniques in smaller datasets broadens the applicability of these methods in several problems in the medical area. In addition, feature importance analysis allowed us to determine the most important variables for the prediction tasks resulting in a nomogram with good accuracy and clinical utility in predicting COVID-19 in-hospital mortality.
ABSTRACT
Body composition, including sarcopenia, adipose tissue, and myosteatosis, is associated with unfavorable clinical outcomes in patients with coronavirus disease (COVID-19). However, few studies have identified the impact of body composition, including pre-existing risk factors, on COVID-19 mortality. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the effect of body composition, including pre-existing risk factors, on mortality in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. This two-center retrospective study included 127 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 who underwent unenhanced chest computed tomography (CT) between February and April 2020. Using the cross-sectional CT images at the L2 vertebra level, we analyzed the body composition, including skeletal muscle mass, visceral to subcutaneous adipose tissue ratio (VSR), and muscle density using the Hounsfield unit (HU). Of 127 patients with COVID-19, 16 (12.6%) died. Compared with survivors, non-survivors had low muscle density (41.9 vs. 32.2 HU, p < 0.001) and high proportion of myosteatosis (4.5 vs. 62.5%, p < 0.001). Cox regression analyses revealed diabetes (hazard ratio [HR], 3.587), myosteatosis (HR, 3.667), and a high fibrosis-4 index (HR, 1.213) as significant risk factors for mortality in patients with COVID-19. Myosteatosis was associated with mortality in hospitalized patients with COVID-19, independent of pre-existing prognostic factors.
ABSTRACT
Background: Persistent symptoms including dyspnea and functional impairment are common in COVID-19 survivors. Poor muscle quality (myosteatosis) associates with poor short-term outcomes in COVID-19 patients. The aim of this observational study was to assess the relationship between myosteatosis diagnosed during acute COVID-19 and patient-reported outcomes at 6 months after discharge. Methods: Myosteatosis was diagnosed based on CT-derived skeletal muscle radiation attenuation (SM-RA) measured during hospitalization in 97 COVID-19 survivors who had available anthropometric and clinical data upon admission and at the 6-month follow-up after discharge. Dyspnea in daily activities was assessed using the modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) scale for dyspnea. Health-related quality of life was measured using the European quality of life questionnaire three-level version (EQ-5D-3L). Results: Characteristics of patients with (lowest sex- and age-specific tertile of SM-RA) or without myosteatosis during acute COVID-19 were similar. At 6 months, patients with myosteatosis had greater rates of obesity (48.4 vs. 27.7%, p = 0.046), abdominal obesity (80.0 vs. 47.6%, p = 0.003), dyspnea (32.3 vs. 12.5%, p = 0.021) and mobility problems (32.3 vs. 12.5%, p = 0.004). Myosteatosis diagnosed during acute COVID-19 was the only significant predictor of persistent dyspnea (OR 3.19 [95% C.I. 1.04; 9.87], p = 0.043) and mobility problems (OR 3.70 [95% C.I. 1.25; 10.95], p = 0.018) at 6 months at logistic regression adjusted for sex, age, and BMI. Conclusion: Myosteatosis diagnosed during acute COVID-19 significantly predicts persistent dyspnea and mobility problems at 6 months after hospital discharge independent of age, sex, and body mass. Clinical Trial Registration: [www.ClinicalTrials.gov], identifier [NCT04318366].
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: About 10-20% of patients with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection progressed to severe illness within a week or so after initially diagnosed as mild infection. Identification of this subgroup of patients was crucial for early aggressive intervention to improve survival. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether computer tomography (CT) - derived measurements of body composition such as myosteatosis indicating fat deposition inside the muscles could be used to predict the risk of transition to severe illness in patients with initial diagnosis of mild COVID-19 infection. METHODS: Patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infection presenting initially as having the mild common-subtype illness were retrospectively recruited between January 21, 2020 and February 19, 2020. CT-derived body composition measurements were obtained from the initial chest CT images at the level of the twelfth thoracic vertebra (T12) and were used to build models to predict the risk of transition. A myosteatosis nomogram was constructed using multivariate logistic regression incorporating both clinical variables and myosteatosis measurements. The performance of the prediction models was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve including the area under the curve (AUC). The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by discrimination, calibration curve, and decision curve. RESULTS: A total of 234 patients were included in this study. Thirty-one of the enrolled patients transitioned to severe illness. Myosteatosis measurements including SM-RA (skeletal muscle radiation attenuation) and SMFI (skeletal muscle fat index) score fitted with SMFI, age and gender, were significantly associated with risk of transition for both the training and validation cohorts (P < 0.01). The nomogram combining the SM-RA, SMFI score and clinical model improved prediction for the transition risk with an AUC of 0.85 [95% CI, 0.75 to 0.95] for the training cohort and 0.84 [95% CI, 0.71 to 0.97] for the validation cohort, as compared to the nomogram of the clinical model with AUC of 0.75 and 0.74 for the training and validation cohorts respectively. Favorable clinical utility was observed using decision curve analysis. CONCLUSION: We found CT-derived measurements of thoracic myosteatosis to be associated with higher risk of transition to severe illness in patients affected by COVID-19 who presented initially as having the mild common-subtype infection. Our study showed the relevance of skeletal muscle examination in the overall assessment of disease progression and prognosis of patients with COVID-19 infection.